International timber market in 1990 and prospects in 1991

During the last 8 years the market economy in West European countries has been in a continuous growth. Such a tendency continued also in 1990 although with a slight decline, more emphasized in North America than in West Europe. The growth of gross national product in West Europe in 1990 will amount to 3% while in 1989 it was 3,4% and in North America 2,5%. The crisis in the Gulf contributed to uncertain forecasts for 1991. There is no doubt that the growth rate will be lower than in 1990. In Central and East-European countries which pass to market economy, the growth rate will be negative by 5-6%. Due to such changes and taking into consideration the events on the world's stage, the signals on the wood market are rather confused. Thus, it is impossible to give definite estimates on development of wood market in the months to follow. Apart from the risks caused by the crisis in the Gulf, the wood market has been negatively influenced by inflation, interest rate increasement and reduction of residential construction. Austria and Germany still look forward to positive growth. However, Great Britain and the countries passing to the market economy expect to encounter difficulties. The trends on the wood market in 1991 will be also influenced by uniting of Germany, by damages caused by storms in 12 European countries and by damages caused by hurricane in south-eastern parts of the USA. In addition to these problems and on condition that the exporters and importers would be circumspective and would not cause imbalance within the ration - supply and demand -, the wood market in 1991 will remain stable