Simulation Model for Prediction of Timber Assortment Price Trends in Croatia - a Case Study of Brinje Forest Office

This paper presents the results of a simulation model for the prediction of sale prices of common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) assortments in the case study of Brinje Forest Office in Croatia. The survey covers the future time frame of 140 years (starting from the year 2013). The database of realized selling prices of assortments in the period from 1997 to 2013 was used in this research. On the basis of statistical analysis of realized selling prices in the past and using the Monte Carlo method, a simulation of future prices with 500, 100, 50 and 30 simulation repetitions was made. The result of this research is the methodological basis for future forest management economic planning in the case study of Brinje Forest Office, as well as in other case studies with similar forest management characteristics. Although, in this research, timber prices applicable in Croatia have been used, the same methods could be applied in other countries, too.